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June 18, 2009
Alternative Investments Are the New Mainstream
We’ve all heard that it was impossible for anyone to make money in 2008. Apparently, no one told this to the investment managers of Harvard University’s endowment. They notched strong returns last year to the tune of 8.6%.
By Andrew Rogers   
We’ve all heard that it was impossible for anyone to make money in 2008. Every asset class suffered terrible losses and there was nothing financial advisors could have done to cushion clients’ portfolios. Apparently, no one told this to the investment managers of Harvard University’s endowment. They notched strong returns last year to the tune of 8.6%.

How is this possible? For a long time, Harvard’s endowment managers have known what the rest of us are truly beginning to realize: Alternative investments make for good strategy.

In recent years, alternative investments such as commodities, hedging strategies and currencies have become increasingly popular. The innovation of alternative mutual funds and exchange traded funds has especially made these types of investments more accessible for financial advisors.   Yet as their name suggests, until now alternative investments haven’t been core holdings for most retail investors. It’s only with the disastrous performance of just about every equity mutual fund in 2008 that we’ve seen how outdated the traditional asset allocation methods are.

In other words, the new market reality is now. And it means that the old “style boxes” are dead.

At our firm, Gemini Fund Services, we are witnessing this trend first hand. Gemini has been in the business of helping investment advisors create and service pooled investment solutions for over 20 years. Today, the vast majority of growth and demand we see is in the alternative strategies realm. In the past three years alone, we have helped advisors launch 15 alternative investment products. To date, these products have over $725 million in assets under management. Eight additional funds have been registered in 2009 and will commence operations soon.

About $1.8 trillion was in the alternative investment market as of the end of 2008 and this number will likely go up, according to Cerulli Associates. “The current market correction has acted as a catalyst, placing portfolio construction at the forefront of advisor focus,” according to a Cerulli report released in April.

“The style-box approach had already lost some of its luster among advisors following the last bear market. At the end of 2008, nearly one-third of mutual fund assets were in funds that do not fit into style boxes, compared with less than one-quarter of assets in 2000,” according to Cindy Zarker, director and lead author of that report, entitled, Alternative Investments in the Retail Marketplace: Evaluating Opportunities and Growth.

The severity of today’s ongoing bear market means more financial advisors are rethinking the conventional wisdom. As risky as new approaches often appear at their outset, it’s clear that investors also take a risk by relying on the old buy-and-hold approaches and believing that “diversification” just means owning different sizes and types of stocks and bonds.

What does this mean for advisors going forward?

It means that when we look back years from now, one of the big lessons of 2008 is that diversification has to mean more than large-cap and small-cap, value and growth, technology and consumer staples.  Consider that investors who had a 401(k) with Fidelity Investments, the largest U.S. retirement plan administrator, saw their retirement savings plummet 27% last year. The average balance fell $19,000.

Even investors in “conservative” allocation mutual funds lost money. Target-date mutual funds designed for people retired or planning to retire in 2000-2010 are down over 20% in one-year returns. College savings plans lost money. This is hard-earned and saved money that investors counted on to live and fund pertinent expenses.

Of course, as risk averse as everyone seems to be these days, how can we be so sure that alternative investments will go mainstream?

One sure sign of their growing acceptance—and significance—is that Morningstar has finally given them a mutual fund category. Before, Morningstar grouped mutual funds under the traditional asset classes: U.S. stocks, international stocks, taxable bonds, municipal bonds and “balanced” funds. Today, Morningstar recognizes and rates mutual funds investing in assets with “little to no correlation” with traditional stocks and bonds. This includes currency, long-short, precious metals and bear-market mutual funds.

For advisors, this is good news. Hedge funds have typically represented the biggest portion of alternative investments. But last year, many high-net-worth investors were rightly nervous about sticking with hedge funds after two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed due to losses on mortgage-backed securities. By contrast, mutual funds are accessible, transparent and regulated in a way that most retail investors can be comfortable with.

For now, it is mostly the smaller players leading the way. Sierra Core Retirement Fund (SIRAX), Autopilot Managed Growth (AUTOX), Palantir Fund (PALIX) and Arrow Alternative Solutions (ASFFX) are just a few of the examples of alternative products we have helped launch and that are at the forefront of this drive to bring Harvard-like results to the average retail investor, no matter the market.

In the future, I suspect it won’t be long before the bigger guys catch on.

Andrew Rogers is president of Gemini Fund Services, LLC, in Hauppaguge, N.Y. Gemini provides back-office services for advisors who are launching or managing mutual funds. He has over 16 years of experience in the mutual fund industry.
 
Comments
mcgriff016   |2009-08-06 06:15:24
Ryan, I am very familiar with Managed Futures--have used them for years. Got my Series 31 back in 1997. I should have added them to my very brief list of 2nd half outperformers!
rdconsult  - alternatives shouldnt be lumped together   |2009-07-18 08:10:46
the term alternatives doesn't mean a thing. Most alternatives do have beta during periods of market stress. But Mcgriff, short term treasuries and precious metals werent the best performers. in fact even gold had extremely high beta during certain periods. The one alternative that did hold up, in fact experienced exceptional returns, was managed futures - more specifically trend based managers. Yet it seems as though very few RIA's are familiar with this space.

Ryan
clebeau2   |2009-06-30 13:14:29
The former manager of the Harvard endowment, Mohamed El-Erian recently stated,
“Diversification alone is no longer sufficient to temper risk. In the past year, we saw virtually every asset class hammered. You need something more to manage risk well.”
Keith Averill  - Pure alternatives that were positive last year   |2009-06-26 10:42:52
Agreed, the article is misleading because of the fiscal year end date of Harvard (June 2008) - however, there are a number of "pure alternative" investment strategies that we have identified and researched that were positive throughout all of last year. My firm specializes in this kind of research. We then use these "pure alternative" strategies as building blocks for our clients. Most of these strategies that we have identified were even positive every single month through all of last year and also through this year. I can show you our research if you want, you'll see what I mean. These are not strategies investing in the public markets and have nothing to do with stocks, bonds, RE or any traditional asset clases.

Keith Averill
www.TopTierManagers.com
775-852-9449
Suzanne Hamilton   |2009-06-19 11:54:02
Nice call david as to the date of their fiscal year, they were down for 2008. McGriff you are right, 2008 had most asset classes correlating to the downside, and history shows that this isn't a rare event just fortunately not common. In such a situation, the only options are getting out or carefully trading the inverse ETFs (this allowed me to finish the year last year up a very small percentage). Alternative investments should have provided better protection than they did last year, but it turned out a lot of them were beta players in disguise. The problem is that this bear market may not be over and not only is it possible that we go down to the lows in March, we may go lower. Throwing some numbers out there, 450 on the SP would be a PE of 8x earnings which is the high end of PEs at bottoms. SP at 400 would translate to a PE of 7x earnings. SP of 300 would not be out of the question yielding a PE of 5x earnings (that is not a black swan event as we have reached PE of 5 in previous lows over the years).

Anyway, this isn't to scare anyone, just that anyone managing money in this environment needs to have a plan in place to protect clients from loss in case the market drops but also to capture upside in case the market doesn't. Definitely not an easy task. Then throw some extra regulation on top of all of this (that will probably only serve to hassle the honest advisor and aid the crooks) and our jobs as advisors couldn't possibly be more difficult.

Suzanne
david@pathfinderfs.com  - Harvard Endowment was a big loser in 2008   |2009-06-19 06:34:42
Wow, the lead in this article is quite misleading (and self serving). Yes, Harvard made 8.6% for their 2008 fiscal year (which ends in June 2008). But by the end of the calendar year the Harvard endowment had lost 22%. So much for alternatives saving their bacon.
mcgriff016   |2009-06-19 05:38:28
This article is extremely misleading. Harvard's 2008 fiscal year ended June 30, 2008. At that point, virtually all the alt-investments were working. We all know what happened next.

Unless they went 100% Precious Metals and Short Term Treasurys, they were down dramatically for the 2nd half of the year. I'd be shocked if they didn't end calendar 2008 down double digits.

Alternative investments fit in nearly every portfolio, but last year's black swan market left no one, even the smart Ivy guys, unscathed.
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