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(Bloomberg News) European banks, under pressure from regulators to bolster capital, are
selling some of their fastest-growing businesses to competitors from
outside the region -- at the expense of future profit and economic
growth.
Spain’s
Banco Santander SA, Belgium’s KBC Groep NV and Germany’s Deutsche Bank
AG are accelerating plans to exit profitable operations outside their
home markets. Santander, which said in October it needs to plug a 5.2
billion-euro ($6.9 billion) capital gap, sold its Colombian unit last
week to Chile’s Corpbanca for $1.16 billion. Deutsche Bank is weighing
options including a sale of most of its asset-management unit, while KBC
may dispose of businesses in Poland.
Such sales
risk hurting long-term profit, just as Europe enters recession,
investors say. It’s the unintended consequence of the decision by
European regulators to make banks increase core capital to 9 percent by
June instead of 2019. Unwilling to raise equity because their share
prices are too low, lenders are selling profitable assets because
they’re struggling to find buyers willing to pay enough for their
troubled loans to avoid a loss that would erode capital. Investors say
the sales risk leaving banks focused on a stagnant economy and deprive
them of economic growth from outside the region.
“These are
the most profitable parts of their business,” said Azad Zangana,
European economist at London-based Schroders Plc, the 200-year-old
British asset manager, citing Spanish and Portuguese banks selling
assets in Latin America. “They’re being forced by regulators to sell
them off. You begin to become a less profitable organization. Your
business model stops working if you’re being forced to lend only to an
economy that’s going through a very deep recession.”
The
divestitures are likely to hurt banks’ profitability in coming years,
analysts say. Shrinkage will cut their return on net asset value by 1.5
percentage points on average, according to a Dec. 6 report by Huw van
Steenis, a Morgan Stanley analyst in London. Return on asset value at
Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank will shrink by almost 1 percentage point
and at Santander by about 0.8 percentage point because of deleveraging,
he said. The shrinking economy will help cut returns by an additional
2.5 percentage points, he added.
For French
banks BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA, return
on equity may fall to between 7 percent and 9 percent in 2013, from 12
percent to 21 percent in 2007, according to Christophe Nijdam, an
analyst at AlphaValue in Paris. The ratio may rise to between 10 percent
and 12 percent by 2015, assuming the economy recovers by then, he said.
“There’s
nothing wrong in theory about selling the crown jewels,” Nijdam said.
“It’s always a question of price. European banks will be less profitable
-- but less risky.”
For banks,
selling assets has become a cheaper way to raise capital than selling
new stock after their shares tumbled. The Bloomberg Europe Banks and
Financial Services Index has slumped 33.5 percent this year, leaving
bank stocks trading at an average of 63 percent of book value.
“Many of
those banks are trading at 50 percent of their book value, so if you can
sell an asset at more than that, it’s a cheaper way to raise capital,”
said Symon Drake-Brockman, former chief executive officer of Royal Bank
of Scotland Group Plc’s global banking and markets in the Americas and
now managing partner of private-equity firm Pemberton Capital Advisors
LLP in London.
Banks across
Europe have pledged to cut more than 950 billion euros of assets over
the next two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This
compares with more than 1.7 trillion euros of non-core and
non-performing assets on their balance sheet, according to a December
study from Deloitte LLP.
About
two-thirds of the cuts will come from sales of profitable units and
performing loans, said van Steenis. Sales of distressed assets and
souring loans will account for just 4 percent, or about 100 billion
euros, he said.
“European
banks are likely to sell good, performing assets to foreign banks and
investors,” he said in an interview. “The question is: When are you
getting to the point of adverse selection? When you’re selling the good
assets and you’re keeping the more risky assets. There is a risk we’re
moving in that direction.”
Buyers, for
the most part private-equity and hedge funds, are offering too steep
discounts for underperforming assets. For banks, a fire sale would
trigger losses they can ill afford at a time when they’re required to
boost capital.
“Lenders are
selling more liquid assets so they can get a price that avoids
additional capital losses,” said Joseph Swanson, co-head of
restructuring at Houlihan Lokey in London. “Unfortunately, this strategy
can result in lower asset quality and increased earnings volatility.”
Regulators
are forcing European banks to raise capital as the region’s
sovereign-debt crisis worsens. The European Banking Authority last week
ordered the region’s financial firms to raise 114.7 billion euros of
additional capital. The EBA, which co-ordinates the work of the region’s
27 national regulators, told lenders to bolster their core Tier 1
capital ratios to more than 9 percent of risk-weighted assets by the
middle of 2012.
Faced with a
potential credit crunch, the regulator told banks to raise the money
from investors, retained earnings and lower bonuses. Failing that,
companies may sell assets, provided the disposals don’t limit overall
lending to the European Union’s “real” economy, the EBA said in a Dec. 8
statement.
“The family
jewels are being sold,” Richard Mattione, a portfolio manager at
Boston-based Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., wrote in a report
this month. “A big chunk of private sector loans can’t be reduced
because they involve property that will be inactive for years, perhaps a
decade. So, once banks trim their healthiest borrowers, and perhaps
reduce their overseas exposures, they quickly run into the need to cut
loans to small and medium enterprises, providing another negative
impulse to European growth.”
Santander
completed the sale of its Brazilian insurance operations to Zurich
Financial Services AG for $1.7 billion and sold a $958 million stake in
Banco Santander Chile, the South American country’s biggest bank by
assets. The Chilean bank’s net profit grew 45 percent between 2008 and
2010 and may increase by another 15 percent this year to about $970
million, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Santander
said it will also sell a stake in its Brazilian banking unit.
The Spanish
lender’s sale of part of its U.S. consumer-loan business to a group led
by private-equity firm KKR & Co. may cut net profit for Santander’s
shareholders by 150 million euros, according to an Oct. 28 estimate by
Raoul Leonard, an analyst at RBS in London.
“That may
only equate to 2 percent of Santander’s group net attributable profit
for 2010, but assuming multiple asset sales may be in the pipeline, this
could lead to a meaningful negative drag on” earnings, Leonard wrote.
A spokeswoman for Santander, who asked not to be identified by name in line with company policy, declined to comment.
KBC, the
Belgian bank that received a 7 billion-euro government bailout, said in
July it would sell Towarzystwo Ubezpieczen i Reasekuracji Warta SA,
Poland’s second-largest insurer, and its 80 percent stake in Polish bank
Kredyt Bank SA.
The sale of
Kredyt Bank, whose net income rose 9.5 percent to 60.8 million zloty
($17.6 million) in the third quarter, will reduce KBC’s return on equity
to 17.3 percent from 18.9 percent, according to Benoit Petrarque, an
analyst at Kepler Capital Markets in Amsterdam.
If the
disposal isn’t big enough to help meet the 9 percent capital target, the
bank could sell its Czech unit as well, Petrarque said. The sale of the
Czech division would boost core capital to 10.5 percent at the cost of
reducing return on equity to about 11 percent, he estimated. KBC said in
July it would retain full ownership of Czech banking unit CSOB AS, its
most profitable business in Eastern Europe.
“When you
sell an asset, there are always two sides of the coin,” Stephane
Leunens, a spokesman for KBC, said in a telephone interview. “We focus
on de-risking the company while trying to generate sufficient growth in
our core markets.”
Philippe
Bodereau, head of European credit research at Pacific Investment
Management Co. in London, said in a telephone interview that European
banks are becoming “slimmer, less global” and “more utility-like.” They
will be “better credit investments than equity investments,” he said.
Deutsche
Bank, which needs to plug a 3.2 billion-euro capital shortfall by the
middle of next year, said last month it is reviewing all options,
including a sale, for most of its asset-management unit, a business that
CEO Josef Ackermann built up over the last decade to help mitigate the
bank’s reliance on investment banking.
The review
focuses on “how recent regulatory changes and associated costs” are
affecting the business, Deutsche Bank said in the Nov. 22 statement. The
disposal would exclude the DWS mutual fund unit in Germany, Europe and
Asia, which the bank said was “a core part” of its offering to
consumers. The review will be conducted “thoroughly and carefully” said
Deutsche Bank spokesman Klaus Winker, declining further comment.
Banco
Espirito Santo SA, Portugal’s largest publicly traded lender, sold its
stake in Brazil’s Banco Bradesco SA for about $1 billion and part of its
stake in Denmark’s Saxo Bank A/S this year. Banco Comercial Portugues
SA, the country’s second-biggest bank by market value, is considering
options for Bank Millennium SA, Poland’s seventh-largest lender,
including a sale. The Porto-based lender needs to raise 1.7 billion
euros to meet regulatory targets.
The Bradesco
sale doesn’t affect the operation’s performance in Brazil and the
bank’s loan portfolio in that country is growing, Paulo Padrao, a
spokesman for Espirito Santo said. Banco Comercial aims to “extract the
maximum value” out of operations in Central and Eastern Europe, Erik
Burns, a spokesman for the bank, said.
ING Groep
NV, the Netherlands’s biggest financial-services firm, agreed in July to
sell most of its Latin American insurance unit for about 2.6 billion
euros to a group led by Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA, a
Colombian investment firm.
“If they
raise capital by selling crown jewels, the market will reward them in
the short term because they’ll meet the regulator’s timeframe,” said
Will James, who runs the 632 million-pound SLI European Equity Income
Fund at Edinburgh-based Standard Life Plc. “That begs the longer-term
question: How do you grow in an environment where customers are
unwilling to borrow. That’s the missing piece from the puzzle. In a low-
growth or no-growth environment, banks that have sold good assets will
continue to struggle.”
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